Sean Donohue

On Wednesday, September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its overnight lending rate steady at 2.25% where it has now remained for almost a year. This move was widely expected by analysts.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.3% in the second quarter, while the unemployment rate edged down to 6.4% in July. Combined with persistently high oil prices, the risk of broader inflationary pressures and the potential impact of Canadian counter-tariffs taking effect September 8, these factors could shift the probability back towards a potential rate hike in the not-too-distant future.

Inflation fears around the world are once again already causing financial conditions to tighten. The Bank noted that, “long-term bond yields have moved up globally, including in Canada,” which means borrowers are already facing higher fixed mortgage rates, similar to what happened back in March and April 2026.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The continuing conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices high. As well, new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures have been announced following the breakdown of trade talks between Canada and the United States. Both situations remain fluid.

In the United States, economic growth continues to be solid, driven by consumer spending and AI-related investment. Growth in the euro area was stronger than expected in the second quarter, while China’s economy slowed. Overall, the global economy has shown resilience in the face of geopolitical headwinds, with growth broadly consistent with the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. With still-high oil prices and elevated margins for refined energy products, inflation in most countries remains high.

Financial conditions have tightened since July. Long-term bond yields have moved up globally, including in Canada. The Canadian dollar has appreciated slightly on US-dollar weakness.

As expected, Canadian economic activity strengthened in the second quarter, with GDP up by 3.3%, following very weak growth in the first quarter. While some of the recent strength reflected temporary factors, the pick-up in activity was broad-based. Consumption showed solid gains. Following several weak quarters, there was some rebound in housing activity. Exports and business investment were up sharply. Labour market conditions have improved in recent months, with the unemployment rate edging down to 6.4% in July. Still, demand for labour remains subdued and indicators point to continued excess supply in the economy.

Nationally, housing sales increased in July and new listings continued to decline. Market conditions tightened from June to July according to the sales-to-new listings ratio and months of inventory. The MLS HPI edged up modestly from June to July, its first monthly increase in 20 months.

The number of national sales reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association increased by 0.5% (sa) from June to July, a fourth consecutive monthly rise. Over this 4-month period, sales have risen by a cumulative 7.2% (sa), which is equivalent to a 23% annualized pace. Nearly 55% of the local markets we track saw sales rise from June to July, with strongest increases observed in Kingston (8.4%; sa), Brantford (6.2%) and St. Catharines (6.1%). Compared to the same month in 2025, sales fell 5.3% (nsa) in July, with annual declines recorded in 84% of the local markets we monitor, with the largest ones observed in Charlottetown (PEI; -19.2%), Lethbridge (-16.4%) and Thunder Bay (-14.7%).

National new listings declined by 1.6% (sa) from June to July, still on their downward trend that started in summer 2025. In July, new listings were 6.9% (nsa) weaker than their level in the same month of 2025. From July 2025 to July 2026, new listings declined in just above 2/3 of our tracked local markets, with the largest declines observed for Fraser Valley (-22.3%), Okanagan-Mainline (-20.7%) and Barrie (-19.7%).