Morris F. Briglio
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Scotiabank: Shifting Priorities at the Bank of Canada
10/9/2024
From Scotiabank
- As the reduction in inflation takes hold and economic activity slows down, the Bank of Canada seems to be shifting its priority from inflation control to worries about growth.
- Using a monetary policy reaction function that estimates the weight on inflation and the output gap over time, we find empirically that that Bank of Canada is now putting more weight on the output gap. This is a break from the last two years in which the estimated weight on inflation dominated that placed on the output gap. Our model suggests that as of 2024Q4, the BoC will focus more on eliminating this economic slack than on fighting inflation.
- Our current forecast is that the Bank of Canada cuts by 25 bps at each of the two remaining meetings this year. This work suggests there is a risk that Governor Macklem will be more aggressive than that if he indeed is putting more weight on growth going forward. That would translate into a risk of a 50 bps cut at one of these meetings.
